Every prediction, tracked.
VORENTH scores every forward claim it makes against real-world outcomes. Brier scoring, calibration analysis, and resolution tracking — all public, all verifiable.
No other intelligence platform publishes its prediction accuracy.
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How we score
Brier Score
Measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. Computed as (predicted probability - actual outcome)². Lower is better. A perfect score is 0.0; random guessing scores 0.25.
Calibration Score
Measures how well predicted probabilities match actual resolution rates. If VORENTH says 70%, events should resolve ~70% of the time. Score of 100% = perfectly calibrated.
Base Rate Anchoring
VORENTH uses its own historical accuracy to ground new predictions. If past market predictions were overconfident by 10%, future estimates are automatically adjusted downward.
Predictions are extracted from intelligence reports, assigned target dates based on timeframe, and resolved as correct, partial, incorrect, or expired. No predictions are retroactively edited or removed. Data is aggregated and anonymized across all VORENTH users.